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Through 20 Atlantic Coast Conference games, Syracuse did just enough to squeak into the conference tournament. The ACC expanded to 18 teams in the offseason by adding SMU, Stanford and California. Despite the additions, the conference decided to stick with its 15-team postseason tournament. So, for the first time in the ACC Tournament’s 70-year history, three teams were left out — NC State, Boston College and Miami.

SU was nearly one of those teams who missed the cut after a season filled with more downs than ups resulted in a 7-13 record in ACC play and the No. 14 seed. Despite a win over Virginia to cap their regular season, the Orange’s seed and opponent were already set for their trip to Charlotte, North Carolina.

Syracuse has seen little success in the conference tournament since joining the ACC in 2013-14, never advancing past the quarterfinal round and accumulating a 5-9 record. But in March, anything can happen.

Here’s what to know about the road ahead for Syracuse men’s basketball (13-18, 7-13 ACC) in the 2025 ACC Tournament:

1st round: No. 11 seed Florida State

SU’s first-round matchup comes at 7 p.m. Tuesday against an opponent it faced 17 games ago. The Orange fell to Florida State in their first game of 2025, collapsing in the second half to lose by 16.

The previous matchup between SU and FSU was the final game of Donnie Freeman’s season before being ruled day-to-day and then later out for the year. It also marked the return of J.J. Starling from his broken left hand, making the contest the final of just seven where Syracuse played at full strength. Still, Starling showed signs of not being back to full strength, allowing Chris Bell to become the Orange’s leading scorer on the night.

Since the first matchup, the Seminoles have gone 7-10, turning in multiple four-game losing streaks through the heart of the ACC schedule. FSU head coach Leonard Hamilton will retire once the squad’s season ends, and it’s already hired Sacramento Kings assistant Luke Loucks to take over. Yes, Florida State poses a serious threat with the ACC’s fourth-highest scorer, Jamir Watkins, and forward Malique Ewin’s 14.4 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. But could the Seminoles already be looking past the Orange into their program’s future?

2nd round: No. 6 seed SMU

If Syracuse can defeat Florida State for its first conference tournament victory since a 39-point win over FSU during the 2021-22 season, it’ll face SMU at the approximated 9:30 p.m. slot Wednesday. The matchup with the Mustangs will come just eight days after a last-second loss in Dallas, where the Orange led by eight at halftime but collapsed down the stretch.

SMU posted an impressive first year in the ACC, finishing at 13-7 with a five-game winning streak from Jan. 25 to Feb. 11. The Mustangs were one of just three teams in the conference to average over 80 points per game throughout the year, trailing only Duke and UNC with 81.1 points per game. Their scoring barrage is often a spread-out effort, with Boopie Miller leading at 13.4 points.

Despite overall success in year one in the conference, SMU’s numbers in its final seven games were less impressive. A 3-4 record has included losses to Stanford and FSU, diminishing its seeding. Of all the possible second-round matchups for SU out of the first-round slots, the Mustangs might just be the best based on the proximity to the last matchup and their recent woes.

Quarterfinal: No. 3 seed Clemson

SU’s first trip to the ACC Tournament’s quarterfinal since 2022 would feature a bout versus one of the hottest teams in the country again at the 9:30 p.m. slot. Clemson enters the conference tournament winners of its last eight games and 14-1 over its last 15.

The Tigers have bullied through conference play with an overall 18-2 record, with the only blemishes coming versus No. 2 seed Louisville and No. 8 seed Georgia Tech. Their claim to fame this season is being the only ACC team to take down Cooper Flagg and Duke, pulling off a six-point win on Feb. 8.

Escaping the quarterfinal with a win over the Tigers is improbable but not impossible for the Orange. In their matchup on Jan. 22, Starling dropped 25 and SU shot a season-high 52.4% from 3, but it wasn’t nearly enough to fight back from a 19-point halftime deficit. If Syracuse does find some March magic in the opening two rounds, top-notch shooter Chase Hunter and Co. will have to put a halt to it.

Semifinal: Likely No. 2 seed Louisville

The Orange have never reached the semifinal of the ACC Tournament. If it does this season, it would have to take down the potent backcourt tandem of Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards Jr. with Louisville. This contest would be the third straight 9:30 p.m. tipoff for the Orange.

The Cardinals earned the tournament’s No. 2 seed by losing just two ACC games and defeating Clemson for the head-to-head tiebreaker. Across a torrid 19-1 stretch since Dec. 21, Louisville defeated SU in commanding fashion on Jan. 14.

Starling was held to one of his worst career games at four points on 14% shooting, and the Cardinals’ backcourt combined for 40 points. Louisville’s poised to be a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament regardless of the outcome. The Cardinals have consistently been ranked in the AP Poll all season and are No. 14 in the Week 18 Poll, three spots behind Clemson. If it comes down to it, Louisville likely won’t allow the Orange to get in its way.

Championship: Likely No. 1 seed Duke or No. 4 seed Wake Forest

Syracuse would need to pick up its first three Quad 1 wins of the season to even get to this point, but it would still be far from out of the clear. To earn the conference’s automatic bid and win its first-ever ACC crown, SU would probably need to take down No. 1 seed Duke or No. 4 seed Wake Forest.

The Blue Devils trounced the Orange on Feb. 5 in their only matchup this year, much like Duke did to nearly every opponent. While Flagg didn’t make much of his mark scoring, his all-around display helped Tyrese Proctor excel for a game-high 16, all while the Orange dropped a season-low 54 points.

If Duke were to be upset, it’d likely set up a date with the Demon Deacons. SU and WF haven’t played since New Year’s Eve, but Wake Forest’s 10-point win against the Orange jump started a six-game winning streak through the middle of the schedule. A win here for Syracuse would end a three-year NCAA Tournament drought, flipping a tumultuous season on its head.

Published on March 9, 2025 at 10:34 pm

Contact Aiden at: amstepan@syr.edu | @AidenStepansky