With increased voter registration and interest breaking all expectations and predictions, this Election Day may be even more unpredictable than the last one.

Kristi Andersen, professor of political science at Syracuse University, spoke in the third in a series of four lectures titled ‘The 2004 Elections: Politics as Usual?’ last night, discussing how voter apathy affects individual groups and why the increased interest in this year’s election will not only improve voter turnout but also change election polls.

Since 1960, Andersen said, voting has consistently fallen and is around 50 percent prior to this election.

‘Things have gotten worse over time,’ Andersen said.

Andersen said that statistics show young people only vote at a 36 percent rate and that people who only have a high school degree vote much less than people with a college degree.

‘Are those patterns going to change at all by this election?’ Andersen said. ‘The attention paid to the election is much greater than it has been before.’

Andersen said people are paying almost three times as much attention to this election than the last. Andersen said only one-third of young people thought the 2000 election would have an effect on their life, but for this election, the statistic is up to 60 percent.

‘Clearly we have a change in the amount of attention people are paying this year,’ Andersen said.

Because of more interest in the election and the increased number of people who have registered to vote, the candidates have focused a great deal on mobilizing their base.

‘Get out the vote organizations are smarter about how to actually get people out to vote,’ Andersen said. ‘Getting people registered doesn’t actually get them to the polls.’

Andersen said there are several reasons why researchers believe people do not vote, but there is no concrete answer. She said the burden is on the people to register and then find a place to vote. Others feel like their vote does not matter, or because of the Electoral College, people living in a state that traditionally votes for a certain party will not have an effect on the outcome of their state.

Andersen does not support the Electoral College because she said it was constructed in a different era for different reasons, and it never served its intended purpose. She added that it disenfranchises people in some states where the outcome is known.

Change to the system, however, is unlikely, she said, since an amendment to the Constitution would be required to eliminate the college.

An idea that she proposed is that electoral votes should be split within the states, which Maine already does and Colorado is considering. In this case, people’s votes would be worth more.

Andersen said voting is important because it is one’s civic duty and even one individual might influence the outcome. But, she said, normally these explanations do not mobilize voters.

Instead, she said people need to realize that if certain groups do not vote, like young people or minorities, there will be no attention paid to them.

Andersen used an example of a mayoral candidate in Syracuse who was approached by a group of black people in the city. The group was trying to get campaign money to help get out the vote. The candidate wanted to know if black voters were expected to show up to the polls in large numbers. His advisers, though, said many were not expected to turn out.

‘The mayoral candidate said, ‘Well, screw them,” Andersen said.

Andersen said the perception of a group voting and voting regularly is crucial.

‘If you don’t vote, the chances that you have to tell the candidate how you feel are diminished,’ Andersen said. ‘The candidate targets resources for people in the system and that have a seat at the table.’

Andersen also spoke about how national polls do not necessarily represent the entire population. Polls normally focus only on registered voters who also have a history of voting. Since there is increased voter registration this election, many people are not considered regular voters and are not included in the polls.

There are no calls to cell phones for use in the polls for a variety of reasons, leaving a number of young voters out of the equation because they do not have a land line that can be called.

‘Who they get are people who have a lot of time on their hands, people who are nice,’ Andersen said. ‘The polls are possibly less accurate.’

Andersen also said voting is a habit.

‘The more you vote, the more it does become a habit,’ Andersen said. ‘I’m hoping in this presidential election of heightened interest, when these young people vote, this will start them with the habit of voting.’

Sandra Barrett, the director of community programs at SU, said the Onondaga Citizens League did a study of non-voters and found that most do not think their vote counts and do not know enough. Older people generally do not vote because they do not like either of the candidates and younger people said they are out of town and might not know where the voting booths are located.

Mallory Wilder and Julia Oko, two high school students from Baldwinsville who attended the lecture, are not yet of voting age, but said they will vote when they are old enough.

Oko said she was most surprised at the decrease in voting, and Wilder said she learned more about the importance of voting.

‘If you don’t vote, your voice isn’t heard,’ Wilder said.

Published on October 19, 2004 at 12:00 pm